The world convenes in The Hague

For just a few days, my city The Hague was the center of the world. That’s what it felt like at least, with over 50 heads of state in town for the Nuclear Security Summit.

The city was in a security lock-down for the past few days with the ominous noise of helicopters hovering above everywhere you went. However, these heads of state were not just here to talk about safeguarding nuclear material. Included also were museum visits, business conventions, and many many bilateral & multilateral discussions about all those other things happening in the world today. Most notably: Ukraine.

But for East Asia-watchers, this past week has been interesting as well.

President Xi Jinping of China combined the NSS with an official state visit to the Netherlands, which included time with the King & Queen but also a major business conference on Sunday for the 200 business delegates that followed him here. I probably missed a unique opportunity by not attending this event, despite it being an afternoon mostly filled with ceremony from what I’ve heard.

The other major leader of an East Asian state was here as well: Japanese PM Shinzo Abe. Having followed his career for much longer, and being much more familiar with Japanese politics, this visit seemed a lot more exciting – but it wasn’t combined with a business delegation. Abe’s schedule did include business: he visited a horticultural region in the country famous for its greenhouse technology. Several companies in this Dutch industry are working on building a presence on the Japanese market, including supporting the rebuilding of the agricultural sector in the Tohoku region.

And then there were the bilateral talks.

One reason why I find East Asia so fascinating is the diversity of politics, economy, history, culture in each of the countries that make up the region. No country is the same. And none of them get along.

President Obama put in some effort to get some of these countries at the table, and last night he met with President Park of South Korea and PM Abe. There were also talks with China.

As the New York Times writes:

The diplomacy of northeast Asia is a little like junior prom: Cathy won’t sit with Jamie, but maybe she would if Sally comes over and sits with them.

It’s quite amazing to realize the work that goes on ‘behind the scenes’. And events like these are rare opportunities where the leaders of the world get to do those quick face to face talks that are sometimes necessary to smooth things out – just like regular people might do in a work situation with colleagues who you talk to quickly at the end of a meeting to discuss something. But in this case, it concerns high-level diplomacy.

Pretty unique to ‘see’ that happening in your home town.

Japan & North Korea: a never ending story

japan 658
taken in Kyoto / May 2012

I graduated from university with a Masters thesis researching and analysing the abduction issue* which was dominating bilateral relations between Japan & North Korea at that time, 2004. So that is quite some time ago.

When I started researching this topic – the North Korean confession in 2002 of having abducted Japanese citizens broke when I was living in Osaka – many people said that this was a non-issue. One of those issues which Japan cares about (strongly), but which ultimately have no further effect and don’t require academic attention. I disagreed, and I think my thesis was convincing on this point. The abduction issue has been a major obstacle in improving bilateral relations between these two countries ever since, much more so than the nuclear threat from North Korea or any other topics that are important on the Korean peninsula.

The East Asia forum published an article today which gives a good overview (with lots of useful links) of recent developments, mainly spurred by Shinzo Abe becoming Japan’s PM again in December 2012. And it shows that it is still one of Japan’s leading foreign policy concerns vis-a-vis North Korea.

And honestly, I can’t quite grasp how an issue like this (yes, it is bizarre to think that your citizens would be kidnapped by another country for spying purposes) can continue for so long.

* if you are interested to obtain a copy, please get in touch

North Korea, the risks of isolation

Last week I had the opportunity to listen to Prof. Remco Breuker and his views on North Korea and recent developments on the Korean peninsula. I have been following him for some time through Twitter and as it turns out we are fellow Japanologists. Though I suppose we both hide that well – Remco Breuker has gone over to the Korean side, while most of my professional life over the past few years has been focused on China.

The lecture was very timely as of course the Korean peninsula is causing quite some headaches again. One of the reasons for my fascination with East Asia is in large part to do with the immense variety of the countries in the region: six countries with completely different political, economic and social systems.

The North Korean state is the one that possibly is the most puzzling in the region to most outside observers. Isolated, poor, but with a large population, large reserves of minerals and a definite streak of independence. And again the country is causing problems by renouncing the cease-fire with South-Korea, and testing its long range missiles every few months or so. Remco Breuker gave us some more background on why this is happening, and gave some interesting insights and thoughts. Some examples:

> Unification is growing more unlikely, not only because of the immense financial cost involved but research in South Korea is showing increasingly that in fact younger generations in South Korea don’t look at the North anymore as being of the same country. As Remco Breuker put it: they are South Koreans, not Koreans.

> No one wants any kind of armed conflict on the Peninsula, but in the current situation unintended escalation is an easy risk.

> Engagement is the only way to get any further in this process. Increasing sanctions on North Korea is only making things worse, as to the people in North Korea it confirms what they know of the outside world: everyone, especially the US, wants to destroy North Korea. However, engagement will not be easy – and to quote Churchill will have to be “failure after failure after failure”. It may also mean that some people in the regime will not get the punishment (straight away) they deserve as the first and foremost objective should be to improve conditions in the country itself for its population. It may be necessary to engage exactly those people who are responsible for the current situation to get there.

There is no easy solution, and there is definitely not an easy way out of the prospect of North Korea becoming a nuclear power. In Breuker’s view this will be something we will have to deal with, as it looks unlikely/impossible that this will be bargained off the table.

Especially the discussion on the role of the regional powers such as Japan and China was a part that I would’ve liked to go on for longer. The complexities of the region are many, and some aspects of it are not really understood here at all. Again, the abduction issue was brought up – the topic of my MA/MSc thesis – which is still having an effect on the Japanese position towards North Korea. I guess some things never change: what may look like an insignificant issue to us in faraway Europe means everything to a resolution that may or may not come.

I wonder what the future will hold for the region, a unified Korea – or two countries continuing to go in a very different direction?